Professor analyzes U.S. foreign policy toward "rogue regimes"
EDITORS: U-M Prof. Raymond Tanter is available to discuss his new book, "Rogue Regimes: Terrorism and Proliferation," published by St. Martin's Press,
ANN ARBOR---Hostilities may further escalate in the Middle East in the next year, despite American efforts to promote peace in the region, says the author of an upcoming book on U.S. foreign policy toward "outlaw" nations around the world.
"I believe that Secretary of State Madeleine Albright's trip to the Middle East this month will raise expectations that personal security and peace are within reach," says Raymond Tanter, professor of political science at the University of Michigan. "And when neither is forthcoming, the likelihood of a military explosion increases."
According to Tanter, a past staff member of the National Security Council and a former personal representative of the Secretary of Defense to arms control talks in Europe, there exists a paradox. While the Arab-Israeli conflict as a series of wars between Israel and the surrounding states winds down, attacks against Israelis as individuals are on the rise, he says.
Tanter's new book, "Rogue Regimes: Terrorism and Proliferation," examines U.S. relations with governments in the Middle East and elsewhere that engage in state-sponsored terrorism, assemble large conventional armed forces, and acquire weapons of mass destruction, such as nuclear, chemical and biological arms.
He says that the recent suicide bombings in Jerusalem are an indication that "the peace train is temporarily derailed." But he believes that military outbursts are likely to take place only on the periphery of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, involving Syria, Iran, Iraq and Libya---four of the states examined in his book.
"Rogue Regimes" suggests several scenarios for future outbreaks of violence in the Middle East, including: --Resumption of the Palestinian uprising against Israel. --Limited war between Israel and Syria over the Golan Heights. --U.S. cruise missile and aircraft strikes against Iran in retaliation for bombings of American military personnel in Saudi Arabia. --Attacks by the American-led coalition against Iraq during a renewal of the Kurdish civil war. --U.S. cruise missile and aircraft strikes against Libya over its chemical weapons construction.
"Rogue Regimes," published by St. Martin's Press, will be available in December 1997.
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Raymond Tanterpolitical scienceU-M News and Information ServicesUniversity of Michigan